An Answer to That Part of Mr. W. Kersseboom's Essay, Which Treats of the Number of the Inhabitants of London; By Wm. Maitland, F. R. S.

XVI. An Answer to that Part of Mr. W. Kersseboom's Essay, which treats of the Number of the Inhabitants of London; by Wm. Maitland, F. R. S. Some time ago an Abstract of a Political Essay, written by Mr. W. Kersseboom, a Dutch Gentleman, (intitled, Verhandeling tot een Proeue om te weeten de probable Menigte des Volks in de Proventie van Hollandt en Westvrieslandt) was read before this Honourable Society; wherein the Author, to the great Disparagement of the City of London, has asserted, that the City of Paris, in the Year 1684, and at the Close of the last Century, contain'd more Inhabitants than the City of London. And to prove that Paris contains a greater Number of Inhabitants than London, he has had recourse to the Accounts of Christenings annually publish'd in both Cities, without giving himself the Trouble to inquire into the Nature of those his Authorities; which if he had, he would soon have discover'd, that the former, is a perfect Account, while the latter, is perhaps the most defective of any extant; for the Christenings therein mention'd, are only those whereat the Parish Clerks are present: which, I am of Opinion, cannot amount to near two Thirds of the whole, as I shall endeavour to make appear. The Burials in the annex'd Table, by some Typographical Errors in the Political Account of my History of London --- *Kersseboom's Verhandel. p. 14. ib. 17.* London, from which it is taken, being increas'd 491 above the real Number, in Graunt's Account, the Sum Total whereof, amounting to 90350, must be reduc'd to 89859; and as in the annex'd Term of Years, there appears to have died of the Plague 1741, three and a half of which, I compute, would have died of common Distempers, out of each Hundred, which amounting to about 61, the same being deducted from 89859, the real Number of the Burials, the Sum will be reduced to 89798, which taken from 90883, the Number total of the Christenings, the remaining Sum will be, 1085, which being divided by Ten, the Medium thereof will be 108½ yearly in Favour of the Christenings. | Years | Christn'd | Buried. Com. Dist. | Buried. Plague | Totals Buried. | |-------|-----------|-------------------|---------------|----------------| | 1626 | 6701 | 7400 | 134 | 7534 | | 1627 | 8408 | 7713 | 4 | 7717 | | 1628 | 8564 | 7740 | 3 | 7743 | | 1629 | 9901 | 8771 | 0 | 8771 | | 1630 | 9315 | 9228 | 1317 | 10545 | | 1631 | 8524 | 8288 | 274 | 8562 | | 1632 | 9584 | 9527 | 8 | 9535 | | 1633 | 9997 | 8392 | 0 | 8392 | | 1634 | 9855 | 10899 | 1 | 10900 | | 1635 | 10034 | 10651 | 0 | 10651 | | Tot. Gen. | 90883 | 88609 | 1741 | 190350 | This Difference in Favour of the Christenings, is owing to the Citizens of that Time being almost of the same Religion; but the Civil War breaking out soon after, the People deviated into a Variety of Sects, subverted the Church of England, and assuming the Civil Power, establish'd a new Hierarchy, or Church-Government. But the Members of the abolish'd Church continuing to baptize among themselves, --- *a Maitland's Hist. Lond. p. 535.* *b Graunt's Nat. and Polit. Observ. 3d Edit. Lond.* *c Maitland's Hist. Lond. p. 535.* (without reporting their Christenings to the new-appointed Members of the Company of Parish-Clerks) occasion'd a very great Defect in the Account of Christenings annually publish'd by the said Parish-Clerks. From this Epoch, is to be dated the Majority of the Burials in the Bill of Mortality over the Christenings of London: And though the Church of England was soon after re-establish'd, yet the numerous Dissenters of all Denominations, persevering in their Separation, continued to baptize within themselves, without sending in Accounts of their Christenings to the restor'd Members of the Company of Parish-Clerks; and the Schism still continuing, the Accounts of the Christenings and Burials of this City remain upon the ancient Foot of Division and Imperfection. Add to this, that not only all the foreign Churches in London christen within themselves, but likewise many Churches and Chapels of the Church of England, that send not in their Accounts to the Company of Parish-Clerks, which, together with those of the Dissenters and Foreigners of all Denominations, amount to no less a Number than one hundred and eighty-one Congregations, whose Accounts of Christenings are not publish'd: By which it is evident, that the vast Disparity between the Christenings and Burials of this City, is not owing, as Mr. Kerseboom vainly imagines, to the Residence of the Court, Convention of Parliament, and great Resort of People from all Parts, but in Fact to the great Defect above-mention'd. * Kerseboom's Verhandel. p. 25. However, that Gentleman, from the aforesaid very defective Account of the Christenings of this City, has calculated the Number of its Inhabitants by a Medium of the Christenings in the Years 1684 and 1685; whereby he makes the Number at that Time amount to five hundred thousand three hundred and forty-four: But as this Number, is only taken from a Medium of two Years, he imagines it too great; therefore to reduce the same to the Number of four hundred and sixty-nine thousand seven hundred, by a Medium of twenty Years, he has unwarrantably precluded the Sum of fourteen thousand seven hundred and two, the Number of Christenings in the Year 1684, to make room for the Sum of eleven thousand eight hundred and fifty-one, the Number of Christenings in the Year 1674; whereby the Number of the Inhabitants of London, is very much lessen'd. And as a farther Instance of Mr. Kerseboom's Partiality in Favour of the City of Paris, he has calculated the Number of its Inhabitants (without mentioning the Uncertainty of a Calculation founded on a short Space of Time, as he has done in the Case of London) at a Medium of the Christenings for the Years 1670, 1671 and 1672, whereby he makes them at that time, amount to, six hundred and ten thousand three hundred; adding, the Number must have been greater at the End of the last Century; as by his extravagant manner of Calculation it should be at present. But as it appears by the above-specified ten Years Account, that the Christenings of London greatly exceed the Burials of that Time, I think it will not be deny'd, that they exceed the same at present; especially if we consider, that the Number of Christenings in Paris, at a Medium of nine Years (preceding that of 1737) exceeded that of the Burials ninety-eight yearly; notwithstanding that City, not only abounds with a vast Number of Religious of both Sexes, who are sworn to Celibacy, but likewise many Thousands of Students belonging to the University, who lead a single Life; whereas in London, there are no such Persons, to prevent the Increase of its Inhabitants. And as in my Political Account of London, it appears a, that at a Medium of nine Years, there are annually buried in London 29542, and in Paris only 17804, which is 11738 in Favour of the former; so must the Births in London at present (according to the above-specified ten Years Account, the Reasons aforesaid, and the Paris Account of Christenings) yearly exceed those of Paris 12320; whereby is shewn, that the Inhabitants of London exceed those of Paris above three fifths in Number. By what has been said, I doubt not but Mr. Kerseboom's Astonishment will not only cease, in respect to the great Difference between the Christenings and Burials of London; but he will be likewise induc'd to do Justice to this injur'd City, by acknowledging that the Inhabitants thereof vastly exceed those of Paris in point of Number. What Mr. Kerseboom's Partiality in Favour of the City of Paris is owing to, I know not; unless it be out of Pique to Sir William Petty, (with whom he seems not well pleas'd) for saying, that the City of London contain'd as many Inhabitants as the Province --- *a Maitland's Hist. Lond. p. 540 and 548.* of Holland and West-Friesland: Which, I think, will be no difficult matter to make appear, by allowing that Gentleman his suppos'd Number of 28000 Children to be annually born in the said Province; whereas, according to the above-specified ten Years Account, and the Paris Proportion of Births, there must be annually born in London thirty-one thousand and eight Children: Therefore, as this Number, according to my Calculation, is the Produce of 725903, the present Number of the Inhabitants of London; so must 28000, the Number of Children supposed to be born yearly in the Province of Holland and West-Friesland, be the Produce of 655485, the present Number of the Inhabitants of the said Province. Notwithstanding Mr. Kerffeboom, by his excessive and unprecedented reckoning of the Births at a thirty-fifth part of the People, has calculated them at 980000; whereas by the ingenious and learned Dr. Halley's Method of Calculation (which is so highly approv'd of by Mr. Kerffeboom, that he seemingly would be thought to make it the Standard of his Calculations) the Inhabitants of the Province of Holland and West-Friesland do not amount to twenty-nine times the Number of the Births; which gives room to suspect, that Mr. Kerffeboom has introduc'd this unheard-of Excess, to increase the Number of People in the said Province of Holland and West-Friesland. * Kerffeboom's Verhandel. p. 3. * Maitland's Hist. Lond. p. 541. * Kerffeboom's Verhandel. p. 3. Printed for T. Woodward, at the Half-Moon, between the Two Temple-Gates in Fleetstreet; and C. Davis, the Corner of Pater-noster-row, next Warwick-lane; Printers to the Royal Society. M.DCC.XL.